A simple approach for multi-criteria decision-making on basis of probability theory
Abstract
In the present paper, a new concept of favorable probability is proposed first, and a simplified approach for multi-criteria decision-making is developed on basis of probability theory. It assumes that all the performance indexes of all alternatives can be divided into beneficial and unbeneficial types in the multi-criteria decision-making, and each performance index of all alternative makes its contribution to a partial favorable probability in positively or negatively correlative manners linearly upon its type of beneficial or unbeneficial; the partial favorable probability of each performance index with the same physical meaning is normalized in the alternative group; the product of all partial favorable probability of an alternative makes the total favorable probability of the alternative. As a consequence, all the alternatives can be ranked according to their total favorable probability comparatively in the multi-criteria decision-making. As application examples of the new method, the quantitative assessment of multi-criteria selection for effective dwelling house walls, project managers and contractor for construction works are given in detail, satisfied results are obtained.
First published online 10 January 2023
Keyword : quantitative assessment, favorable probability, probability based approach, multi-criteria decision-making, overall consideration
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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