Share:


Economic complexity and Information Society paradigms: a hybrid contribution to explain economic growth

    Javier Jurado-González Affiliation
    ; José Luis Gómez-Barroso   Affiliation

Abstract

In the last decades, the Information Society (IS) paradigm has brought together various research lines related to the diffusion and adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and their contribution to economic, social and human development. On the other hand, other research lines have recently explored the phenomenon of Economic Complexity (EC), providing new metrics to quantify this decisive factor for the prediction of economic growth and other human relevant variables. This article explores these two trends with the construction of two composite indexes. Then, it evaluates their explanatory power to predict economic growth, first separately, and afterwards together. The results show they can predict economic growth and improve their predictive capacity by working combined. In the conclusions, some difficulties and challenges for the development of these metrics are analyzed.

Keyword : Information Society, Economic Complexity, information technologies, metrics

How to Cite
Jurado-González, J., & Gómez-Barroso, J. L. (2022). Economic complexity and Information Society paradigms: a hybrid contribution to explain economic growth. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(6), 1871–1896. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.17104
Published in Issue
Nov 28, 2022
Abstract Views
708
PDF Downloads
546
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Albeaik, S., Kaltenberg, M., Alsaleh, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Improving the economic complexity index. Addendum (729 new measures of economic complexity). arXiv:1707.05826

Albright, K. (2005). Global measures of development and the information society. New Library World, 106(7/8), 320–331. https://doi.org/10.1108/03074800510608639

Alfaro Cortés, E., & Alfaro Navarro, J. L. (2011). Do ICT influence economic growth and human development in European Union countries? International Advances in Economic Research, 17(1), 28–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-010-9289-5

Audenhove, L. V., Burgelman, J.-C., Nulens, G., & Cammaerts, B. (1999). Information society policy in the developing world: A critical assessment. Third World Quarterly, 20(2), 387–404. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436599913811

Axtell, R. (2001). Zipf distribution of U.S. firm sizes. Science, 293(5536), 1818–1820. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1062081

Bahrini, R., & Qaffas, A. A. (2019). Impact of information and communication technology on economic growth: Evidence from developing countries. Economies, 7(1), 21–34. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7010021

Bakhshi, H., & Larsen, J. (2005). ICT-specific technological progress in the UK. Journal of Macroeconomics, 27(4), 648–669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2004.03.004

Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8

Bates, J. E., & Shepard, H. K. (1993). Measuring complexity using information fluctuation. Physics Letters A, 172(6), 416–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(93)90232-O

Beck, E., Madon, S., & Sahay, S. (2004). On the margins of the “Information Society”: A comparative study on mediation. The Information Society, 20(4), 279–290. https://doi.org/10.1080/01972240490481009

Becker, G. S., Glaeser, E. L., & Murphy, K. M. (1999). Population and economic growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 145–149. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.2.145

Beinhocker, E. D. (2006). The origin of wealth: Evolution, complexity, and the radical remaking of economics. Harvard Business School Press.

Bell, D. (1973). The coming of the post-industrial society. Basic Books.

Boleti, E., Garas, A., Kyriakou, A., & Lapatinas, A. (2021). Economic complexity and environmental performance: Evidence from a world sample. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 26, 251–270. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-021-09750-0

Bryant, F., & Yarnold, P. (1995). Principal components analysis and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. In L. G. Grimm & P. R. Yarnold (Eds.), Reading and understanding multivariate statistics (pp. 99–136). American Psychological Association.

Bulturbayevich, M. B., & Jurayevich, M. B. (2020). The impact of the digital economy on economic growth. International Journal of Business, Law, and Education, 1(1), 4–7.

Can, M., & Gozgor, G. (2017). The impact of economic complexity on carbon emissions: Evidence from France. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24, 16364–16370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9219-7

Cardona, M., Kretschmer, T., & Strobel, T. (2013). ICT and productivity: Conclusions from the empirical literature. Information Economics and Policy, 25(3), 109–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2012.12.002

Chávez, J. C., Mosqueda, M. T., & Gómez-Zaldívar, M. (2017). Economic complexity and regional growth performance: Evidence from the Mexican economy. Review of Regional Studies, 47(2), 201–219. https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.8023

Corrado, C., Haskel, J., & Jona-Lasinio, C. (2017). Knowledge spillovers, ICT and productivity growth. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 592–618. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12171

Courtright, C. (2004). Which lessons are learned? Best practices and World Bank rural telecommunications policy. The Information Society, 20(5), 345–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/01972240490507983

Cristelli, M., Gabrielli, A., Tacchella, A., Caldarelli, G., & Pietronero, L. (2013). Measuring the intangibles: A metrics for the economic complexity of countries and products. PLoS ONE, 8, e70726. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0070726

Dawson, M., & Foster, J. B. (1998). Virtual Capitalism. In R. W. McChesney, E. M. Wood, & J. B. Foster (Eds.), Capitalism and the information age (pp. 51–67). Monthly Review Press.

Domini, G. (2019). Patterns of specialisation and economic complexity through the lens of universal exhibitions, 1855–1900 (LEM Working Paper Series No. 2019/20).

Drucker, P. (1968). The age of discontinuity. Harper & Row.

Durlauf, S. N. (2005). Complexity and empirical economics. The Economic Journal, 115(504), F225–F243. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2005.01003.x

Erkan, B., & Yildirimci, E. (2015). Economic complexity and export competitiveness: The case of Turkey. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 524–533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.06.262

Erumban, A. A., & Das, D. K. (2016). Information and communication technology and economic growth in India. Telecommunications Policy, 40(5), 412–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2015.08.006

Fawaz, F., & Rahnama-Moghadamm, M. (2019). Spatial dependence of global income inequality: The role of economic complexity. The International Trade Journal, 33(6), 542–554. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2018.1535336

Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12(1–2), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(83)90031-7

Follmer, H. U. (2005). Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: A probabilistic perspective. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 41(1–2), 123–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2004.08.001

Gala, P., Rocha, I., & Magacho, G. (2018). The structuralist revenge: Economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 38(2), 219–236. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572018v38n02a01

Goldfarb, B., Kirsch, D., & Miller, D. A. (2007). Was there too little entry during the Dot Com Era? Journal of Financial Economics, 86(1), 100–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.03.009

Gómez Barroso, J. L., & Feijóo, C. (2006). Public policies against the digital divide: A necessary adaptation to different degrees of development. International Journal of Internet and Enterprise Management, 4(3), 257–268. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJIEM.2006.010918

Gómez-Barroso, J. L., & Marbán-Flores, R. (2020a). Telecommunications and economic development – The 20th century: The building of an evidence base. Telecommunications Policy, 44(2), 101904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2019.101904

Gómez-Barroso, J. L., & Marbán-Flores, R. (2020b). Telecommunications and economic development – The 21st century: Making the evidence stronger. Telecommunications Policy, 44(2), 101905. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2019.101905

Gómez-Barroso, J. L., Feijóo, C., & Karnitis, E. (2008). The European policy for the development of an Information Society: The right path? JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 46(4), 787–825. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2008.00803.x

Gonçalves, B. P. (2011). Modeling users’ activity on twitter networks: Validation of dunbar’s number. PloS one, 6(8), e22656. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022656

Grassberger, P. (1991). Information and complexity measures in dynamical systems. In H. Atmanspacher & H. Scheingraber (Eds.), NATO ASI series: Vol. 256. Information dynamics (pp. 15–33). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2305-9_2

Hartmann, D., Guevara, M. R., Jara-Figueroa, C., Aristarán, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Linking economic complexity, institutions, and income inequality. World Development, 93, 75–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.12.020

Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildir, M. A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9647.001.0001

Hayek, F. A. (1978). Law, legislation and liberty. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226321233.001.0001

Heeks, R. (2002). Information systems and developing countries: Failure, success, and local improvisations. The Information Society, 18(2), 101–112. https://doi.org/10.1080/01972240290075039

Hidalgo, C. (2015). Why information grows: The evolution of order, from atoms to economies. Basic Books.

Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570–10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106

Hodgson, G. M. (1998). The approach of institutional economics. Journal of Economic Literature, 36(1), 166–192.

Hosseini, E., & Aghaei, M. (2009). The effect of ICT on economic growth: Further evidence. International Bulletin of Business Administration, 5, 46–56.

Ivanova, I., Smorodinskaya, N., & Leydesdorff, L. (2020). On measuring complexity in a post-industrial economy: The ecosystem’s approach. Quality & Quantity, 54, 197–212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00844-2

Ivanova, I., Strand, Ø., & Leydesdorff, L. (2019). An eco-systems approach to constructing economic complexity measures: Endogenization of the technological dimension using Lotka–Volterra equations. Advances in Complex Systems, 22(1), 1850023. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525918500236

Ivanova, I., Strand, Ø., Kushnir, D., & Leydesdorff, L. (2017). Economic and technological complexity: A model study of indicators of knowledge-based innovation systems. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 120, 77–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.007

Jakimowicz, A. (2020). The role of entropy in the development of economics. Entropy, 22(4), 452. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22040452

Jalava, J., & Pohjola, M. (2002). Economic growth in the New Economy. Evidence from advanced economies. Information Economics and Policy, 14(2), 189–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6245(01)00066-X

Jalava, J., & Pohjola, M. (2007). ICT as a source of output and productivity growth in Finland. Telecommunications Policy, 31(8–9), 463–472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2007.05.011

Jalava, J., & Pohjola, M. (2008). The roles of electricity and ICT in economic growth: Case Finland. Explorations in Economic History, 45(3), 270–287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2007.11.001

James, M. (2006). An institutional critique of recent attempts to measure technological capabilities across countries. Journal of Economic Issues, 40(3), 743–766. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2006.11506943

Jurado-González, J., & Gómez-Barroso, J. (2016). What became of the Information Society and development? Assessing the Information Society’s relevance in the context of an economic crisis. Information Technology for Development, 22(3), 436–463. https://doi.org/10.1080/02681102.2016.1155143

Kanu, S. I., & Ozurumba, B. A. (2014). Capital formation and economic growth in Nigeria. Global Journal of Human-Social Science: Economics, 14(4), 43–58.

Krugman, P. (1994). Complex landscapes in economic geography. The American Economic Review, 84(2), 412–416.

Kuriyan, R., Ray, I., & Toyama, K. (2008). Information and communication technologies for development: The bottom of the pyramid model in practice. The Information Society, 24(2), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.1080/01972240701883948

Lapatinas, A. (2019). The effect of the Internet on economic sophistication: An empirical analysis. Economics Letters, 174, 35–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.10.013

Lee, S. T., Gholami, R., & Tong, T. Y. (2005). Time series analysis in the assessment of ICT impact at the aggregate level – lessons and implications for the new economy. Information and Management, 42(7), 1009–1022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2004.11.005

Li, X., & Liu, X. (2005). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: An increasingly endogenous relationship. World Development, 33(3), 393–407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.11.001

Lui, L. T., Terrazas, G., Zenil, H., Alexander, C., & Krasnogor, N. (2015). Complexity measurement based on information theory and kolmogorov complexity. Artificial Life, 21(2), 205–224. https://doi.org/10.1162/ARTL_a_00157

Machlup, F. (1962). The production and distribution of knowledge in the United States. Princeton University Press.

Madureira, A., Den Hartog, F., Bouwman, H., & Baken, N. (2013). Empirical validation of Metcalfe’s law: How Internet usage patterns have changed over time. Information Economics and Policy, 25(4), 246–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2013.07.002

Magazzino, C., Mele, M., Morelli, G., & Schneider, N. (2021). The nexus between information technology and environmental pollution: Application of a new machine learning algorithm to OECD countries. Utilities Policy, 72, 101256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2021.101256

Mantz, J. F. (2008). Improvisational economies: Coltan production in the eastern Congo. Social Anthropology, 16(1), 34–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8676.2008.00035.x

Masuda, Y. (1980). The information society as post industrial society. Institute for the Information Society.

Mealy, P., & Teytelboym, A. (2020). Economic complexity and the green economy. Research Policy, 103948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.103948

Menou, M., & Taylor, R. (2006). A grand challenge: Measuring information societies. The Information Society, 22(5), 261–267. https://doi.org/10.1080/01972240600903904

Metcalfe, B. (2013). Metcalfe’s law after 40 years of Ethernet. Computer, 46(12), 26–31. https://doi.org/10.1109/MC.2013.374

Moreno-Hurtado, C., Plascencia, A., Lozano, A., & Cano, J. (2020, June). ICT exports: The role of human capital and economic complexity. In 15th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies (CISTI) (pp. 1–15). Seville. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.23919/CISTI49556.2020.9140931

Naisbitt, J. (1982). Megatrends. Ten new directions transforming our lives. Warner Books.

Neagu, O., & Teodoru, M. C. (2019). The relationship between economic complexity, energy consumption structure and greenhouse gas emission: Heterogeneous panel evidence from the EU countries. Sustainability, 11(2), 497–526. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020497

Nelson, R., & Winter, S. (1982). An evolutionary theory of economic change. Belknap Press.

Niebel, T. (2018). ICT and economic growth – Comparing developing, emerging and developed countries. World Development, 104, 197–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.024

Nordhaus, W. D. (2021). Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(1), 299–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105

Oliner, S., & Sichel, D. E. (2000). The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: Is information technology the story? The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.4.3

Orrell, D. (2018). Quantum economics: The new science of money. Icon Books.

Ourens, G. (2012). Can the method of reflections help predict future growth? (Documento de trabajo). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales – Universidad de la República, 17/12, 17. UR. FCS-DE. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/2241

Peterson, E. W. (2017). The role of population in economic growth. Sage Open, 7(4), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244017736094

Petralia, S., Balland, P.-A., & Morrison, A. (2017). Climbing the ladder of technological development. Research Policy, 46, 956–969. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2017.03.012

Poncet, S., & de Waldemar, F. S. (2013). Economic complexity and growth. Revue Économique, 64(3), 495–503. https://doi.org/10.3917/reco.643.0495

Porat, M. U. (1977). The information economy: Definition and measurement. Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. http://www.eric.ed.gov/PDFS/ED142205.pdf

Pradhan, R. P., Arvin, M. B., Nair, M., Bennett, S. E., & Hall, J. H. (2019). The information revolution, innovation diffusion and economic growth: An examination of causal links in European countries. Quality & Quantity, 53(3), 1529–1563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0826-2

Pradhan, R. P., Sarangi, A. K., Maity, C., & Behera, R. R. (2022). ICT infrastructure and economic growth in G-20 countries: New insights form ARDL modelling. The Journal of Developing Areas, 56(1), 47–58.

Prochniak, M. (2011). Determinants of economic growth in central and eastern europe: The global crisis perspective. Post-Communist Economies, 23(4), 449–468. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2011.622566

Rincon, A., Vecchi, M., & Venturini, F. (2012). ICT spillovers, absorptive capacity and productivity performance. Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 103/2012. Università di Perugia.

Rodríguez Casal, C., Van Wunnik, C., Delgado Sancho, L., Burgelman, J. C., & Desruelle, P. (2005). How will ICTs affect our environment in 2020? Foresight, 7(1), 77–87. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510581330

Rodríguez, F., & Wilson III, E. (2000). Are poor countries losing the Information Revolution? University of Maryland, College Park.

Romero, J. P., & Gramkow, C. (2021). Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emissions. World Development, 139, 105317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105317

Rosen, R. (1986). On information and complexity. In J. Casti & A. Karlqvist (Eds.), Biomathematics: Vol. 16. Complexity, language, and life: Mathematical approaches (pp. 174–196). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-70953-1_7

Rosser, J. B. (2008). Econophysics and economic complexity. Advances in Complex Systems, 11(5), 745–760. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525908001957

Sahay, S., & Avgeroum, C. (2002). Introducing the special issue on information and communication technologies in developing countries. The Information Society, 18(2), 73–76. https://doi.org/10.1080/01972240290075002

Sbardella, A., Pugliese, E., & Pietronero, L. (2017). Economic development and wage inequality: A complex system analysis. PLoS ONE, 12, e0182774. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182774

Seo, H., Lee, Y. S., & Hun Oh, J. (2009). Does ICT investment widen the growth gap? Telecommunications Policy, 33(8), 422–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2009.04.001

Sepehrdoust, H., & Ghorbanseresht, M. (2019). Impact of information and communication technology and financial development on economic growth of OPEC developing economies. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 40(3), 546–551. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2018.01.008

Soomro, A. N., Kumar, J., & Kumari, J. (2022). The dynamic relationship between FDI, ICT, trade openness, and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 9(2), 295–303. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0161633

Stojkoski, V., Utkovski, Z., & Kocarev, L. (2016). The impact of services on economic complexity: Service sophistication as route for economic growth. PLoS ONE, 11(8), e0161633. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0161633

Tacchella, A., Cristelli, M., Caldarelli, G., Gabrielli, A., & Pietronero, L. (2012). A new metrics for countries’ fitness and products’ complexity. Scientific Reports, 2, 723. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00723

Tacchella, A., Cristelli, M., Caldarelli, G., Gabrielli, A., & Pietronero, L. (2013). Economic complexity: Conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(8), 1683–1691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2013.04.006

Tacchella, A., Mazzilli, D., & Pietronero, L. (2018). A dynamical systems approach to gross domestic product forecasting. Nature Physics, 14, 861–865. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-018-0204-y

Teppayayon, O., Bohlin, E., & Forge, S. (2009). Will broadband networks make the world greener? Evaluating pros and cons of broadband development. Communications and Strategies, 76, 19–38.

Toader, E., Firtescu, B. N., Roman, A., & Anton, S. (2018). Impact of information and communication technology infrastructure on economic growth: An empirical assessment for the EU countries. Sustainability, 10(10), 3750. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103750

Tripathi, M., & Inani, S. K. (2020). Does information and communications technology affect economic growth? Empirical evidence from SAARC countries. Information Technology for Development, 26(4), 773–787. https://doi.org/10.1080/02681102.2020.1785827

United Nations Conference on Trade And Development. (2009). Information Economy Report 2009. Trends and outlook in turbulents times. UNCTAD. United Nations Publications Office.

Venturini, F. (2009). The long-run impact of ICT. Empirical Economics, 37(3), 497–515. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-008-0243-9

Vigo, R. (2011). Representational information: A new general notion and measure of information. Information Sciences, 181(21), 4847–4859. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2011.05.020

Vu, K. H., & Bohlin, E. (2020). ICT as a driver of economic growth: A survey of the literature and directions for future research. Telecommunications Policy, 44(2), 101922. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2020.101922

Wilson, E. J. (2003). The information revolution and developing countries. MIT Press Cambridge.

Wohl, I. (2020). The method of reflections and US occupational employment. Office of Industries, U.S. International Trade Commission. https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/id_066_the_method_of_reflections_and_u.s._occupational_employment_final_042120-compliantf.pdf

Younger, M. S. (1979). A handbook for linear regression (5th ed.). Wadsworth.

Zhang, X., Liu, J., & Xu, Z. (2015). Tencent and Facebook data validate Metcalfe’s law. Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 30(2), 246–251. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11390-015-1518-1

Zhu, S., Yu, C., & He, C. (2020). Export structures, income inequality and urban-rural divide in China. Applied Geography, 115, 102150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102150